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enhance(#2229): add three-way claim disposition (admit/refute/abstain) to /gsd-explore research pass (#2543)

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Closes #2229.

Each claim surfaced by /gsd-explore's research pass is dispositioned admit, refute, or abstain, with abstentions routed to a visible ledger instead of being smoothed into confident prose. Refute and abstain are separated by whether the disagreeing source is authoritative for that claim; a strong prior is never authoritative alone.

Two guards ride with it: conflict-abstention, and a tier floor that presents a would-be admit as an abstain when the researcher's resolved tier is the budget tier or cannot be determined.

To make that floor enforceable, resolve-model now emits the effective tier (--pick tier). It was already computed above the resolve_model_ids omit gate but was unreachable from a workflow, which left the floor inert on every non-Claude install - the model id is blank under omit and runtime-substituted where a tier map exists, and the profile defaults to balanced. The tier signal mirrors every resolution step that can change which tier runs, including the model_policy preset, and reports unknown rather than guessing. Output is additive; model, profile and effort are unchanged.

Two residuals are disclosed in the workflow rather than papered over: a raw-model-id model_overrides pin reports unknown and is floored (fails closed), and a model_profile_overrides entry repointing a tier at another tier's model can under-report (fails open, and predates this change).

Admin merge used only to satisfy the missing secondary reviewer on a single-maintainer PR. No CI failure and no conflict were bypassed: 38 checks green, remote runner 32255/32255 on both Node lanes.
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Rezolv
2026-08-09 23:05:41 -04:00
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parent 693f12ad56
commit 2dbee3ebdd
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pr: 2543
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**`/gsd-explore` research passes now disposition each surfaced claim three ways** — **admit** (survives a prompted-to-refute pass and is grounded in a source, shown with the source), **refute** (a source contradicts it, dropped or corrected), or **abstain** (unverifiable, or a source-vs-prior conflict). Abstained claims go to a separate **Unresolved** ledger instead of being smoothed into confident prose, so you can see what the research could not stand behind. Refute and abstain are separated by whether the disagreeing source is *authoritative for that claim* — a blog post contradicting your `engines` field is an abstain, the `engines` field itself is a refute — and your own prior belief is never authoritative alone. A finding that comes back with no disposition at all is ledgered as an abstain rather than silently dropped or asserted as prose. Two guards ship with it: conflict-abstention (a source-vs-prior conflict routes to the ledger, not a silent pick-a-side) and a tier floor (a would-be admit is presented as an abstain when the researcher's resolved tier is budget-level or could not be determined, because an under-tiered or unverified researcher over-defers to whatever source it was handed; corrections are unaffected). Keying the floor on the resolved tier rather than the model id keeps it working on non-Claude installs, where the model id is often blank or substituted by the runtime. The floor narrows this gap rather than closing it — a config that deliberately repoints one tier at another tier's model can still report a higher tier than what actually runs. Claims-side analogue of the honest verifier. (#2229)