feat(#2630): phase-estimation module, smart-zone config key, and cli verbs (#2661)

* feat(#2630): add phase-estimation module, smart-zone config key, and cli verbs

* fix(#2630): document smart_zone_tokens, refresh golden fixtures, fix null-proto property assertions

* fix(#2630): align smart_zone_tokens write/read validation and harden estimation tests

* chore(#2630): backfill changeset pr to 2661
This commit is contained in:
Tom Boucher
2026-07-26 01:42:47 -04:00
committed by GitHub
parent bf127b7d25
commit 46ba02acde
35 changed files with 1319 additions and 97 deletions

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@@ -124,6 +124,7 @@ const CONFIG_DEFAULTS = {
security_asvs_level: _getNestedConfigDefault('workflow', 'security_asvs_level'),
security_block_on: _getNestedConfigDefault('workflow', 'security_block_on'),
post_planning_gaps: _getNestedConfigDefault('workflow', 'post_planning_gaps'),
smart_zone_tokens: _getNestedConfigDefault('workflow', 'smart_zone_tokens'),
};
/**

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@@ -89,6 +89,9 @@ const SCHEMA_DEFAULTS: Record<string, unknown> = {
'executor.stall_detect_interval_minutes': 5,
'executor.stall_threshold_minutes': 10,
'git.create_tag': true,
// Derived from the defaults manifest rather than restated, so the manifest
// stays the single source of truth for the smart-zone budget (#2630).
'workflow.smart_zone_tokens': CONFIG_DEFAULTS.smart_zone_tokens,
};
/**
@@ -773,6 +776,19 @@ function cmdConfigSet(cwd: string, keyPath: string | undefined, value: string |
}
}
// Smart-zone token budget (#2630, ADR-2629). Same shape as context_window:
// a positive integer token count. A POLICY default, not a benchmark constant.
// Number.isSafeInteger, NOT Number.isInteger: the read side
// (estimate-cli readSmartZoneBudget) accepts only safe integers, so an
// isInteger-only gate would let config-set 'succeed' on a value past 2^53
// that estimate-check then silently ignores in favour of the default.
// Accept and honour must agree.
if (kp === 'workflow.smart_zone_tokens') {
if (typeof parsedValue !== 'number' || !Number.isSafeInteger(parsedValue) || parsedValue < 1) {
error(`Invalid workflow.smart_zone_tokens '${val}'. Must be a positive integer (token count).`, ERROR_REASON.USAGE);
}
}
// Post-planning gap checker (#2493)
if (kp === 'workflow.post_planning_gaps') {
if (typeof parsedValue !== 'boolean') {

158
src/estimate-cli.cts Normal file
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@@ -0,0 +1,158 @@
/**
* Estimate CLI — the I/O seam over the pure phase-estimation module.
*
* Epic #1952 Phase 1 (#2630). Design lock: docs/adr/2629-phase-effort-estimation-calibration.md.
*
* `phase-estimation.cts` is pure policy; everything that touches disk or config
* lives here. Two leaf verbs (a pair, so leaves rather than a family per
* ADR-2346's ">=3 subcommands" rule):
*
* gsd-tools query estimate-check --tokens <n>
* gsd-tools query estimate-calibration
*
* Both degrade rather than fail. A missing or corrupt
* `.planning/estimation-calibration.json` yields an inert calibration
* (factor 1, applied false) instead of breaking planning — the file is a disk
* trust boundary that steers planning output, so it is parsed defensively and
* never trusted structurally.
*/
import fs from 'node:fs';
import path from 'node:path';
// eslint-disable-next-line @typescript-eslint/no-require-imports -- io.cjs is an export= CommonJS module
import io = require('./io.cjs');
// eslint-disable-next-line @typescript-eslint/no-require-imports -- phase-estimation.cjs is an export= CommonJS module
import estimation = require('./phase-estimation.cjs');
// eslint-disable-next-line @typescript-eslint/no-require-imports -- planning-workspace.cjs is an export= CommonJS module
import planningWorkspace = require('./planning-workspace.cjs');
// eslint-disable-next-line @typescript-eslint/no-require-imports -- config-loader.cjs is an export= CommonJS module
import configLoader = require('./config-loader.cjs');
const { output, error, ERROR_REASON } = io;
const { planningDir } = planningWorkspace;
const { CONFIG_DEFAULTS } = configLoader;
/** Filename of the persisted calibration document, written by extract-learnings (Phase 3). */
export const CALIBRATION_FILENAME = 'estimation-calibration.json';
function defaultBudget(): number {
const fromManifest = Number(CONFIG_DEFAULTS.smart_zone_tokens);
return Number.isSafeInteger(fromManifest) && fromManifest > 0 ? fromManifest : 100000;
}
/**
* Read the configured smart-zone budget, degrading to the manifest default.
*
* Reads config.json directly rather than through the flat loadConfig
* projection: a hand-edited config can hold any value, and this seam must
* validate rather than assume. An out-of-shape value falls back to the default
* instead of propagating NaN into the comparison.
*/
export function readSmartZoneBudget(cwd: string): number {
try {
const configPath = path.join(planningDir(cwd), 'config.json');
const parsed: unknown = JSON.parse(fs.readFileSync(configPath, 'utf-8'));
if (parsed !== null && typeof parsed === 'object') {
const workflow = (parsed as Record<string, unknown>)['workflow'];
if (workflow !== null && typeof workflow === 'object') {
const value = (workflow as Record<string, unknown>)['smart_zone_tokens'];
if (typeof value === 'number' && Number.isSafeInteger(value) && value > 0) return value;
}
}
} catch {
// Absent, unreadable, or malformed config — the default is the answer.
}
return defaultBudget();
}
/** Read and defensively parse the calibration history. Never throws. */
export function readCalibrationSamples(cwd: string): ReturnType<typeof estimation.parseCalibrationDocument> {
let raw: string;
try {
raw = fs.readFileSync(path.join(planningDir(cwd), CALIBRATION_FILENAME), 'utf-8');
} catch {
return [];
}
return estimation.parseCalibrationDocument(raw);
}
/**
* Parse `--tokens <n>`.
*
* Rejects a missing value, an empty/whitespace value, a value that is really
* the next flag, and anything that is not a positive integer. Uses an exact
* digit match rather than Number()/parseInt so that "1; touch x", "1e5",
* "0x10", and " 1 " are all refused — the value reaches us as argv, is never
* shell-interpolated, and must not be coerced into looking valid.
*/
export function parseTokensFlag(args: string[]): number {
const idx = args.indexOf('--tokens');
if (idx === -1) {
error('Usage: estimate-check --tokens <positive integer>', ERROR_REASON.USAGE);
}
const value = args[idx + 1];
if (value === undefined || value.startsWith('--') || !/^[0-9]+$/.test(value)) {
error(
`Invalid --tokens ${JSON.stringify(value ?? '')}. Must be a positive integer (token count).`,
ERROR_REASON.USAGE,
);
}
const parsed = Number(value);
if (!Number.isSafeInteger(parsed) || parsed < 1) {
error(
`Invalid --tokens ${JSON.stringify(value)}. Must be a positive integer (token count).`,
ERROR_REASON.USAGE,
);
}
return parsed;
}
/**
* `estimate-check --tokens <n>` — classify an estimate against the configured
* smart-zone budget, with the current calibration applied.
*
* The advisory contract (ADR-2629 Decision 5): this reports, it never blocks.
* Exit status is 0 whether or not the estimate is over budget; `over_budget`
* in the payload is the signal.
*/
export function cmdEstimateCheck(cwd: string, args: string[], raw: boolean): void {
const rawTokens = parseTokensFlag(args);
const budget = readSmartZoneBudget(cwd);
const calibration = estimation.computeCalibration(readCalibrationSamples(cwd));
const calibratedTokens = estimation.applyCalibration(rawTokens, calibration.factor);
const classification = estimation.classifyAgainstBudget(calibratedTokens, budget);
output({
raw_tokens: rawTokens,
calibrated_tokens: calibratedTokens,
budget,
over_budget: classification.overBudget,
budget_valid: classification.budgetValid,
ratio: Number(classification.ratio.toFixed(4)),
recommendation: classification.recommendation,
confidence: calibration.confidence,
calibration_applied: calibration.applied,
calibration_factor: calibration.factor,
sample_count: calibration.sampleCount,
}, raw);
}
/**
* `estimate-calibration` — report the current correction factor and the
* history behind it.
*/
export function cmdEstimateCalibration(cwd: string, _args: string[], raw: boolean): void {
const calibration = estimation.computeCalibration(readCalibrationSamples(cwd));
output({
factor: calibration.factor,
applied: calibration.applied,
sample_count: calibration.sampleCount,
confidence: calibration.confidence,
clamped: calibration.clamped,
min_samples: estimation.MIN_CALIBRATION_SAMPLES,
}, raw);
}

359
src/phase-estimation.cts Normal file
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@@ -0,0 +1,359 @@
/**
* Phase Estimation — estimate/actuals schema, smart-zone threshold policy, and
* estimate-vs-actual calibration.
*
* Epic #1952, Phase 1 (#2630). Design lock: docs/adr/2629-phase-effort-estimation-calibration.md.
*
* Pure functions only — no I/O, no config reads. Callers supply the budget and
* the raw calibration document; this module decides policy over them. The CLI
* seam (gsd-tools) owns reading `.planning/config.json` and
* `.planning/estimation-calibration.json`.
*
* Two properties this module exists to preserve, both from ADR-2629:
*
* 1. Every signal is EXOGENOUS. The correction routes on a measured
* actual/estimate ratio; `confidence` routes on a calibration sample
* count. Nothing routes on a model's self-assessment. This project
* measured self-rated confidence and found it weak
* (gsd-core/references/honest-verifier.md:25-29 — "on a true blind spot it
* stays confidently wrong"), which is why deriveConfidence() takes a
* sample count and there is no "how sure are you?" input anywhere here.
*
* 2. Estimate and actual share ONE measurement scale — estimateTokens() from
* prompt-budget. A ratio between two different measurement methods would
* measure the methods, not the miss. measureTokens() below is the single
* re-export so no consumer reaches for a second estimator.
*
* ADR-457 build-at-publish: source here, compiled to
* gsd-core/bin/lib/phase-estimation.cjs (gitignored).
*/
// eslint-disable-next-line @typescript-eslint/no-require-imports -- prompt-budget.cjs is an export= CommonJS module
import promptBudget = require('./prompt-budget.cjs');
const { estimateTokens } = promptBudget;
/** Confidence in an estimate. DERIVED from calibration sample count — never self-rated. */
export type Confidence = 'low' | 'med' | 'high';
export const CONFIDENCE_VALUES: readonly Confidence[] = Object.freeze(['low', 'med', 'high'] as const);
/** Below this many calibration samples, no correction is applied (ADR-2629 Decision 4). */
export const MIN_CALIBRATION_SAMPLES = 3;
/** Sample-count thresholds for derived confidence (ADR-2629 Decision 1). */
export const CONFIDENCE_MED_MIN_SAMPLES = 3;
export const CONFIDENCE_HIGH_MIN_SAMPLES = 6;
/** Correction-factor clamp. Outside this range the estimator is wrong in kind, not degree. */
export const CALIBRATION_FACTOR_MIN = 0.5;
export const CALIBRATION_FACTOR_MAX = 3.0;
/** Schema version for the persisted calibration document. */
export const CALIBRATION_SCHEMA_VERSION = 1;
export interface PhaseEstimate {
tokens: number;
tasks: number;
confidence: Confidence;
}
export interface PhaseActuals {
tokens: number;
tasks: number;
commits: number;
}
export interface BudgetClassification {
/** True only when the estimate strictly exceeds the budget. At the budget exactly, false. */
overBudget: boolean;
/** estimate / budget. 0 when the budget is unusable. */
ratio: number;
/** Human-facing split advice. Null unless overBudget. Advisory — never a block. */
recommendation: string | null;
/** False when the supplied budget was not a positive finite number. */
budgetValid: boolean;
}
export interface CalibrationSample {
estimateTokens: number;
actualTokens: number;
}
export interface CalibrationResult {
/** Multiply a raw estimate by this. Exactly 1 when not applied. */
factor: number;
/** Count of USABLE samples (both sides positive and finite). */
sampleCount: number;
/** True once sampleCount >= MIN_CALIBRATION_SAMPLES. */
applied: boolean;
/** Derived from sampleCount — the same signal, surfaced for the estimate block. */
confidence: Confidence;
/** True when the median ratio fell outside the clamp and was pinned to a bound. */
clamped: boolean;
}
/**
* A positive, finite, safe integer. Rejects NaN, Infinity, negatives, zero,
* non-integers, and anything past MAX_SAFE_INTEGER (where integer arithmetic
* silently stops being exact).
*/
function isPositiveInt(value: unknown): value is number {
return typeof value === 'number'
&& Number.isSafeInteger(value)
&& value > 0;
}
function isPositiveFinite(value: unknown): value is number {
return typeof value === 'number' && Number.isFinite(value) && value > 0;
}
function isConfidence(value: unknown): value is Confidence {
return typeof value === 'string' && (CONFIDENCE_VALUES as readonly string[]).includes(value);
}
/**
* A usable calibration sample: both sides present, positive, and finite.
* A zero or negative estimate would divide to Infinity or flip the ratio's
* sign, so those are dropped rather than coerced.
*/
function isCalibrationSample(value: unknown): value is CalibrationSample {
if (value === null || typeof value !== 'object' || Array.isArray(value)) return false;
const record = value as Record<string, unknown>;
return isPositiveFinite(record['estimateTokens']) && isPositiveFinite(record['actualTokens']);
}
/**
* Measure text on the canonical scale. The ONE estimator both the estimate and
* the actuals must use — see property 2 in the module header.
*/
export function measureTokens(text: string | null | undefined): number {
return estimateTokens(text);
}
/**
* Derive confidence from how much measured history backs the estimate.
*
* Exogenous by construction: the input is a count, not a judgment. A non-integer
* or negative count degrades to 'low' rather than throwing — an unusable history
* is exactly the low-confidence case.
*/
export function deriveConfidence(sampleCount: unknown): Confidence {
if (typeof sampleCount !== 'number' || !Number.isFinite(sampleCount) || sampleCount < 0) return 'low';
if (sampleCount >= CONFIDENCE_HIGH_MIN_SAMPLES) return 'high';
if (sampleCount >= CONFIDENCE_MED_MIN_SAMPLES) return 'med';
return 'low';
}
/**
* Classify an estimate against the smart-zone budget.
*
* Boundary contract (ADR-2629 Decision 3 + RULESET.TESTS.boundary-coverage.fixtures):
* budget-1 → under, budget → under, budget+1 → over. The comparison is strictly
* greater-than, so landing exactly on the budget is not a violation.
*
* An unusable budget (hand-edited config, missing key) never fabricates a
* violation: it reports budgetValid=false and overBudget=false, so a broken
* config cannot spam split recommendations.
*/
export function classifyAgainstBudget(estimate: unknown, budget: unknown): BudgetClassification {
if (!isPositiveFinite(budget) || !isPositiveFinite(estimate)) {
return { overBudget: false, ratio: 0, recommendation: null, budgetValid: isPositiveFinite(budget) };
}
const ratio = estimate / budget;
if (estimate <= budget) {
return { overBudget: false, ratio, recommendation: null, budgetValid: true };
}
const slices = Math.ceil(ratio);
return {
overBudget: true,
ratio,
recommendation:
`Estimated ${estimate} tokens exceeds the ${budget}-token smart-zone budget `
+ `(${ratio.toFixed(2)}x). Consider splitting this phase into about ${slices} `
+ `slices — a tracer plus ${slices - 1} expansion slice(s) — so each runs inside the budget.`,
budgetValid: true,
};
}
/** Median of a non-empty numeric array. Caller guarantees non-empty. */
function median(sorted: number[]): number {
const mid = Math.floor(sorted.length / 2);
if (sorted.length % 2 === 1) return sorted[mid];
return (sorted[mid - 1] + sorted[mid]) / 2;
}
/**
* Compute the correction factor from estimate/actual history.
*
* Median, not mean — one pathological phase (an aborted run, a mass rename)
* must not swing every later projection. Clamped, because a ratio outside
* [0.5, 3.0] means the estimator is wrong in kind and amplifying it would make
* the next estimate worse, not better.
*
* Samples missing either side, or carrying a non-positive/non-finite value, are
* dropped rather than coerced — a zero estimate would divide to Infinity.
*/
export function computeCalibration(samples: unknown): CalibrationResult {
const candidates: unknown[] = Array.isArray(samples) ? samples : [];
const usable = candidates.filter(isCalibrationSample);
const sampleCount = usable.length;
const confidence = deriveConfidence(sampleCount);
if (sampleCount < MIN_CALIBRATION_SAMPLES) {
return { factor: 1, sampleCount, applied: false, confidence, clamped: false };
}
const ratios = usable.map((s) => s.actualTokens / s.estimateTokens).sort((a, b) => a - b);
const raw = median(ratios);
const factor = Math.min(CALIBRATION_FACTOR_MAX, Math.max(CALIBRATION_FACTOR_MIN, raw));
return { factor, sampleCount, applied: true, confidence, clamped: factor !== raw };
}
/**
* Apply a correction factor to a raw estimate. Rounds to an integer because
* `estimate.tokens` is an integer field; floors at 1 so a heavy shrink factor
* can never produce a zero-token estimate.
*/
export function applyCalibration(rawTokens: unknown, factor: unknown): number {
if (!isPositiveFinite(rawTokens)) return 0;
if (!isPositiveFinite(factor)) return Math.max(1, Math.round(rawTokens));
// Bound the product: an inexact float past MAX_SAFE_INTEGER would masquerade
// as an integer token count. Unreachable through today's CLI (which is
// safe-integer bounded) but the function is exported and must not depend on
// its caller for that guarantee.
const scaled = Math.round(rawTokens * factor);
return Math.min(Number.MAX_SAFE_INTEGER, Math.max(1, scaled));
}
/** Pull the `estimate:` mapping out of an already-parsed frontmatter object. */
function estimateBlockOf(input: unknown): unknown {
if (input === null || typeof input !== 'object') return null;
const record = input as Record<string, unknown>;
return Object.prototype.hasOwnProperty.call(record, 'estimate') ? record['estimate'] : record;
}
/**
* Parse an estimate block. Returns null for anything that is not a complete,
* well-typed estimate — a partial block is not a usable estimate, and silently
* defaulting a missing field would fabricate data the planner never produced.
*
* Accepts either the whole frontmatter object (`{estimate: {...}}`) or the
* estimate mapping itself, so callers need not unwrap.
*/
export function parseEstimate(input: unknown): PhaseEstimate | null {
const block = estimateBlockOf(input);
if (block === null || typeof block !== 'object' || Array.isArray(block)) return null;
const record = block as Record<string, unknown>;
const tokens = record['tokens'];
const tasks = record['tasks'];
const confidence = record['confidence'];
if (!isPositiveInt(tokens) || !isPositiveInt(tasks) || !isConfidence(confidence)) return null;
return { tokens, tasks, confidence };
}
/** Pull the `actuals:` mapping out of an already-parsed frontmatter object. */
function actualsBlockOf(input: unknown): unknown {
if (input === null || typeof input !== 'object') return null;
const record = input as Record<string, unknown>;
return Object.prototype.hasOwnProperty.call(record, 'actuals') ? record['actuals'] : record;
}
/**
* Parse an actuals block. `commits` may be 0 — a phase can legitimately record
* zero commits — so it is validated as a non-negative integer while tokens and
* tasks stay strictly positive.
*/
export function parseActuals(input: unknown): PhaseActuals | null {
const block = actualsBlockOf(input);
if (block === null || typeof block !== 'object' || Array.isArray(block)) return null;
const record = block as Record<string, unknown>;
const tokens = record['tokens'];
const tasks = record['tasks'];
const commits = record['commits'];
if (!isPositiveInt(tokens) || !isPositiveInt(tasks)) return null;
if (typeof commits !== 'number' || !Number.isSafeInteger(commits) || commits < 0) return null;
return { tokens, tasks, commits };
}
/**
* Render an estimate as the YAML block that lands in PLAN.md frontmatter.
* Inverse of parseEstimate over the same value domain — the bijection the
* property test pins.
*/
export function renderEstimate(estimate: PhaseEstimate): string {
return [
'estimate:',
` tokens: ${estimate.tokens}`,
` tasks: ${estimate.tasks}`,
` confidence: ${estimate.confidence}`,
].join('\n');
}
/** Render an actuals block for SUMMARY.md frontmatter. Inverse of parseActuals. */
export function renderActuals(actuals: PhaseActuals): string {
return [
'actuals:',
` tokens: ${actuals.tokens}`,
` tasks: ${actuals.tasks}`,
` commits: ${actuals.commits}`,
].join('\n');
}
export interface CalibrationDocument {
schema_version: number;
samples: CalibrationSample[];
}
/**
* Parse the persisted calibration document.
*
* This is a trust boundary: the file is on disk, may be hand-edited, and its
* contents steer planning output. Every failure mode degrades to an empty
* sample set rather than throwing or partially trusting — malformed JSON, a
* non-object root, a missing/!== current schema_version, a non-array samples
* field, or individual malformed samples.
*
* A schema_version we do not recognize is refused outright rather than
* best-effort read: a future writer may change the ratio's meaning, and
* misreading it would silently corrupt every subsequent estimate.
*/
export function parseCalibrationDocument(raw: unknown): CalibrationSample[] {
if (typeof raw !== 'string' || raw.trim() === '') return [];
let parsed: unknown;
try {
parsed = JSON.parse(raw);
} catch {
return [];
}
if (parsed === null || typeof parsed !== 'object' || Array.isArray(parsed)) return [];
const doc = parsed as Record<string, unknown>;
if (doc['schema_version'] !== CALIBRATION_SCHEMA_VERSION) return [];
if (!Array.isArray(doc['samples'])) return [];
// Rebuild each sample from its two known fields rather than passing the
// parsed object through — a hostile document cannot smuggle extra keys
// (or a __proto__ payload) into anything downstream.
return (doc['samples'] as unknown[])
.filter(isCalibrationSample)
.map((s) => ({ estimateTokens: s.estimateTokens, actualTokens: s.actualTokens }));
}
/** Serialize a calibration document. Inverse of parseCalibrationDocument. */
export function renderCalibrationDocument(samples: CalibrationSample[]): string {
const doc: CalibrationDocument = { schema_version: CALIBRATION_SCHEMA_VERSION, samples };
return `${JSON.stringify(doc, null, 2)}\n`;
}