msd-core/get-shit-done/references/scope-estimation.md

<scope_estimation> Plans must maintain consistent quality from first task to last. This requires understanding quality degradation and splitting aggressively.

<quality_insight> Claude degrades when it perceives context pressure and enters "completion mode."

Context Usage	Quality	Claude's State
0-30%	PEAK	Thorough, comprehensive
30-50%	GOOD	Confident, solid work
50-70%	DEGRADING	Efficiency mode begins
70%+	POOR	Rushed, minimal

The 40-50% inflection point: Claude sees context mounting and thinks "I'd better conserve now." Result: "I'll complete the remaining tasks more concisely" = quality crash.

The rule: Stop BEFORE quality degrades, not at context limit. </quality_insight>

<context_target> Plans should complete within ~50% of context usage.

Why 50% not 80%?

• No context anxiety possible
• Quality maintained start to finish
• Room for unexpected complexity
• If you target 80%, you've already spent 40% in degradation mode </context_target>

<task_rule> Each plan: 2-3 tasks maximum. Stay under 50% context.

Task Complexity	Tasks/Plan	Context/Task	Total
Simple (CRUD, config)	3	~10-15%	~30-45%
Complex (auth, payments)	2	~20-30%	~40-50%
Very complex (migrations, refactors)	1-2	~30-40%	~30-50%

When in doubt: Default to 2 tasks. Better to have an extra plan than degraded quality. </task_rule>

<split_signals>

<always_split>

• More than 3 tasks - Even if tasks seem small
• Multiple subsystems - DB + API + UI = separate plans
• Any task with >5 file modifications - Split by file groups
• Checkpoint + implementation work - Checkpoints in one plan, implementation after in separate plan
• Discovery + implementation - DISCOVERY.md in one plan, implementation in another </always_split>

<consider_splitting>

• Estimated >5 files modified total
• Complex domains (auth, payments, data modeling)
• Any uncertainty about approach
• Natural semantic boundaries (Setup -> Core -> Features) </consider_splitting> </split_signals>

<splitting_strategies> By subsystem: Auth → 01: DB models, 02: API routes, 03: Protected routes, 04: UI components

By dependency: Payments → 01: Stripe setup, 02: Subscription logic, 03: Frontend integration

By complexity: Dashboard → 01: Layout shell, 02: Data fetching, 03: Visualization

By verification: Deploy → 01: Vercel setup (checkpoint), 02: Env config (auto), 03: CI/CD (checkpoint) </splitting_strategies>

<anti_patterns> Bad - Comprehensive plan:

Plan: "Complete Authentication System"
Tasks: 8 (models, migrations, API, JWT, middleware, hashing, login form, register form)
Result: Task 1-3 good, Task 4-5 degrading, Task 6-8 rushed

Good - Atomic plans:

Plan 1: "Auth Database Models" (2 tasks)
Plan 2: "Auth API Core" (3 tasks)
Plan 3: "Auth API Protection" (2 tasks)
Plan 4: "Auth UI Components" (2 tasks)
Each: 30-40% context, peak quality, focused commits

</anti_patterns>

<estimating_context>

Files Modified	Context Impact
0-3 files	~10-15% (small)
4-6 files	~20-30% (medium)
7+ files	~40%+ (large - split)

Complexity	Context/Task
Simple CRUD	~15%
Business logic	~25%
Complex algorithms	~40%
Domain modeling	~35%

2 tasks: Simple ~30%, Medium ~50%, Complex ~80% (split) 3 tasks: Simple ~45%, Medium ~75% (risky), Complex 120% (impossible) </estimating_context>

<depth_calibration> Depth controls plan count, not plan size.

Depth	Phases	Plans/Phase	Tasks/Plan
Quick	3-5	1-3	2-3
Standard	5-8	3-5	2-3
Comprehensive	8-12	5-10	2-3

Tasks/plan is CONSTANT at 2-3. The 50% context rule applies universally.

Depth determines thoroughness by creating more phases and more plans—never by cramming more into each plan.

Comprehensive depth example: Auth system at comprehensive depth = 8 plans (not 3 big ones):

• 01: DB models (2 tasks)
• 02: Password hashing (2 tasks)
• 03: JWT generation (2 tasks)
• 04: JWT validation middleware (2 tasks)
• 05: Login endpoint (2 tasks)
• 06: Register endpoint (2 tasks)
• 07: Protected route patterns (2 tasks)
• 08: Auth UI components (3 tasks)

Each plan: fresh context, peak quality. More plans = more thoroughness, same quality per plan. </depth_calibration>

**2-3 tasks, 50% context target:** - All tasks: Peak quality - Git: Atomic, surgical commits - Autonomous plans: Subagent execution (fresh context)

The principle: Aggressive atomicity. More plans, smaller scope, consistent quality.

The rule: If in doubt, split. Quality over consolidation. Always.

Depth rule: Depth increases plan COUNT, never plan SIZE.